ATLANTA — The Spinmeisters are once again hoist on their own petards.

What was being spun as done is not – at least not yet. What was supposed to be ready for the big reveal Saturday morning is now on hold. Now it’s ‘maybe tomorrow, maybe not.’

The closing press conference was to be at 4 p.m.. Talks are now scheduled to extend into Sunday, which Japan on reluctantly agreed to. The talks appear to be tracking for another Maui Meltdown.

Read more at: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/10/03/tpp-talks-bogging-down-meltdown-alert/

ATLANTA — Ministers and negotiators have been working around the clock on the-Trans Pacific Partnership to meet an October 3 target. After more than 20 rounds and five years of almost continuous negotiation, the U.S. and the other 11 countries are preparing to shift into implementation mode.

In Canada, the Harper government is preparing a blitz to deliver the good news — and only the good news — to Canadian voters at a crucial point in the election campaign.

Representatives of big business are heading back to prepare for a celebratory roll out beginning with Perrin Beatty’s press conference on Parliament Hill first thing Monday morning.

Read more here: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/10/03/tpp-all-over-but-the-shouting/

The TPP ministerial meeting in Atlanta has been extended at least until Friday, probably until Saturday. Hope springs eternal and success this week could restore our belief in miracles.

Progress was made Thursday: we now appear to have an agreement on rules-of-origin for the automotive sector — but we don’t know what’s in it, or how much Canada had to give away to get to ‘yes’. So there appear to be fewer worries now that the ministers will fail to get a deal — but it’s not at all clear that the U.S. team can get enough in the package to please Congress. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, in a speech from the Senate floor, has already warned the Obama administration about how high the bar has been set.

Read more here: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/10/01/the-harper-government-is-running-out-of-time-to-sell-tpp-to-voters/

Trade expert Peter Clark is in Atlanta, Georgia, where he is monitoring the talks at the Trans Pacific Partnership Ministerial meeting.

Atlanta, Georgia – Ministers in Atlanta seem determined to close the unending negotiations on the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement by Saturday this week. The odds are now 60/40 that Ministers will not need to reconvene in November.

There are still important issues to be resolved. Trade negotiations have become increasingly complicated and nothing is concluded until the very last minute. Negotiators must be satisfied that there is nothing else to be extracted.

The Automotive deal is done, or at least essentially done, settling the key outstanding issue. With automotive rules of origin settled, pressure on other players to compromise will intensify.

I expect the other differences will fall like dominoes.

Then what happens?

Read more here: http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/10/01/shake-hands-with-the-devil/#.Vld4E3arSUk

It is raining in Atlanta. It’s likely to rain all week — which suits the mood at the negotiating table so far.

There were rumours circulating Tuesday that chief negotiators working on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal had reached an agreement-in-principle (AIP). Would that be like the AIP that Canada announced with Europe, the one which has spent years in the ‘final polishing and legal drafting’ phase?

Rumours of a deal have been denied — but what are denials worth in this ultra-opaque round of negotiations? No one here is swallowing the AIP bilge. Two years ago, the national leaders involved in these talks suggested they already had an agreement-in-principle. So much for credibility.

Read more here: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/09/30/a-tpp-deal-by-friday-dont-bet-the-farm/

Ministers from 12 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries are returning to the negotiating table — this time in Atlanta –barely a month after the meltdown at Maui. The negotiations are still not ripe for harvest. But the drivers of monthly ministerial meetings have no fear of failure. They are good at it.

The San Francisco Quad meeting (Canada, Mexico, Japan and the US) on automotive rules of origin was supposed to set the stage for a successful Ministerial meeting. It has not.

Japan says the auto deal is close. Rep. Sander Levin (D-Mi), who is House Ways & Means Committee Ranking Member, says there is a lot to do.

There’s an important truism in trade talks: the deal is never as close as it appears to those desperate for closure.

Read more here: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/09/26/tpp-gone-with-the-wind/

Ministers negotiating the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership will meet for three days next week in Atlanta in what is seen as a last ditch effort to reach an agreement.

Prime Ministers Shinzō Abe of Japan and Stephen Harper, and President Barack Obama all want the deal done – and done soon.

After the Maui fiasco last month, nothing can be left to chance. This must be an essentially done deal before it is handed off to Ministers. A working session in San Francisco on the automotive impasse begins today. Those meetings will determine the outcome of what, if anything, will be discussed at the Atlanta meetings, which run from September 30 to October 1.

Obama has predicted aloud that the agreement will be done in weeks. He is a brave soul given his record as a prognosticator. The deal is still not certain. Are his advisors confident – or is there no chance but to push ahead – because the window for passage on his watch will soon close?

Read more here: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/09/21/sayonara-nafta-canada-must-compromise-to-stay-in-tpp-talks/

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations remain mired in basic disagreements. Closure in 2015 is a fading dream abandoned by the realists.

Others, recognizing that their best bet is passage on Obama’s watch, continue to press for an early ministerial conference to avoid the legislative timetable slipping into 2016. But their views have little traction these days.

The mood going into Maui was positive and highly optimistic. The unexpected crash has deflated that spirit of optimism. Little has happened since the crash. The way forward is most uncertain.

One thing we know: the delays likely will prevent the TPP from becoming a Canadian election issue.

Read more at: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/09/04/carmageddon-why-the-tpp-probably-wont-be-an-election-issue/

More bad news from Japan for fans of the Trans Pacific Partnership. Just when we thought it couldn’t get worse, it just did.

Most serious is concerns about U.S. electronic eavesdropping (a.k.a. spying) on Japan are becoming a public issue and another potential embarrassment for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. His initial reaction was seen as too soft.

An op-ed in the influential Asahi Shimbun asks why the U.S. is treating Japan as an enemy. Good question. Japanese industrialists who feel short changed by the TPP are upset that they too were targets of the intercepts.

Read more at: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/11/is-the-tpp-even-possible-without-japan

Trade expert Peter Clark was in Lahaina, Hawaii, for the recent talks at the Trans Pacific Partnership Ministerial meeting.  As the clock ticks toward the ‘deadline’ for an agreement and as pressure to conclude a deal continues, he is continuing to provide updates on the state of negotiations. 

The extreme secrecy of the Trans‑Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations has generated much criticism from those on the outside trying to look in.  Post Maui has been a busy week for TPP negotiators.  Early assessments of work to be done have been scrapped.  A USTR briefing to Congress has provided an unprecedented glimpse at how much remains undone.

Read more at: http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/08/09/trouble-in-paradise/#.Vld7HXarSUk